Texas Data Center Boom to Double Electricity Demand

A dramatic surge in energy demand is coming for Texas’ power grid over the next decade, driven almost entirely by the booming data center sector.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, projected peak electricity demand could hit 218 gigawatts by 2031, more than double the state’s record of 85.5 GW, set in 2023, the Dallas Morning News reported.

Roughly 86 GW of that growth is expected to come from energy-hungry data centers alone, enough to power more than 21 million homes. The forecast represents a 37 percent increase from its own long-term projection issued just last year.

The projection underscores just how much Texas has become a magnet for data infrastructure. OpenAI’s upcoming “Stargate” data center in Abilene, being developed by Denver-based Crusoe Energy, for example, is expected to draw as much as 6 GW, nearly twice the typical daily usage of the entire surrounding Rio Grande Valley.

The revised forecast follows a 2023 rule change requiring ERCOT, the manager for Texas’ exclusive power grid, to include all potential large-scale energy users in its modeling — even those still in early planning phases.

The grid operator simultaneously issued a more conservative estimate, capping demand at 145 GW by 2031. But the headline number has already raised eyebrows among lawmakers and analysts.

The numbers may be inflated, but according to energy analyst Doug Lewin, the broader trend is clear: Texas is headed for significant load growth that will require a major ramp-up in energy generation.

The latest projection comes just months after the agency warned that, under worst-case scenarios, peak demand could outstrip power supply as early as 2027.

Some see the 218 GW estimate as inflated, and lawmakers are still pressing for more accurate forecasting. State Sen. Phil King said some data center projects now rival the power needs of entire regions, raising questions about which commitments are real and which are speculative.

Regardless of the final number, the private sector’s power infrastructure development is unlikely to match that level of demand growth on pace, Lewin said.

“I don’t ever like to say impossible, but that’s about as damn near impossible as anything could be,” he said.

— Judah Duke